Thursday · Issue No. 148
Jul 16, 2026 · 9 min read
This week — Macro
The duration trap: why long bonds aren't the hedge they were
For forty years, long-dated Treasuries were the reflex hedge against equity drawdowns. This issue walks through why the correlation broke, what regime we are actually in, and how to reposition the defensive sleeve of a portfolio without reaching for cash.
Inside this issue
- 01The 2022 correlation break, in one chart
- 02Term premium is finally positive again
- 03Three ways to rebuild a defensive sleeve
- 04What I'm watching into next week
148
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The record
Every call, logged and left in the open
No cherry-picking. This is the running ledger of every position the newsletter has argued for, with the return since the issue it appeared in.
| Idea | Ticker | Issue | Called | Return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy infrastructure | AMLP | 142 | Jun 2026 | +11.20% | Open |
Returns measured from the closing price on the issue's publication date. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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